关键词: 误差修正模型, VAR模型, 脉冲响应, 方差分解

Abstract: Based on the time series data of GDP import and export,and tax from 1978to 2014,this paper analyzes the impact of import and export trade on taxation by establishing the error correction model and utilizing the impulse response and variance decomposition.The empirical results show that the short-term effect of import and export trade on tax is smaller than the short-term effect of GDP on tax,but the long term effect is stronger has the characteristics of strong than GDP has the characteristics of strong;the effect of import and export trade on tax revenue increases over time significantly,which matches China′s economic development at the present stage.

Key words:

"> Error correction model, VAR model, Impulse response, Variance decomposition